The public cloud changes everything about IT, and IBM (IBM) is destined to be one of the victims. I tried to make the case to Warren Buffett in a six-page letter sent in April. My effort to persuade obviously failed - he still owns the stock - but the argument still holds. Here is the letter, a narrative that...Read More
In many verticals, it's tough to separate the winners from the losers. Tesla (TSLA), for example, comes out of nowhere to shock the staid, boring auto industry. At this point, I can't tell you with confidence how the drama will play out. Tesla has first mover advantage and the lead in innovation, while Toyota (TM), Ford (F), GM (GM) and Chrysler have distribution, scale and resource advantages. It'll be fun to watch - from the sidelines. If I could figure out...Read More
It's not too late for Warren Buffett, or any other risk-adverse IBM shareholder. Get out now and don't look back. IBM's (IBM) business model no longer fits the competitive environment, as I've explained in multiple columns. This is a train wreck that everyone should see coming.
I'll explain IBM's core problem, warn investors from...Read More
The debt issue is rubbish, a media fiction. Not a shred of evidence exists to show the economy is being stressed by federal debt. None. Debt is at reasonable levels, consistent with norms that date back to the Reagan administration.
More rubbish: We are not burdening our children with excessive debt. The guilt trip put on Americans for...Read More
It's sure sounds like a lot, doesn't it? $17 trillion in federal government debt. Wow. It's a big, scary number, no doubt about it. But other than saying it's a big, scary number, a rational observer does not attribute meaning to...Read More
The way I see it, most investors fall into one of two buckets: One is toe-in-the-water bullish (which is to say, lukewarm), and the other is bearish, or otherwise looking for a serious pullback before putting money to work in the stock market.
I'm betting both buckets are wrong.While I won't be doing another
Top-10 list this year (though it is tempting, as the opportunities are as robust as ever), if I did, I would reprise my...Read More
Whether you're a fence-sitter on stocks, unsure of which way to go, or one of those tired, cranky old bears, I've got an invitation for you: Come on over to the bull side. For one thing, it's a lot more fun to...Read More
In terms of investing strategy, there are lots of things to avoid (warnings to follow) and two clear winners: U.S. stocks and U.S. real estate. In stocks, I've given you plenty of ideas to consider, including 20 consecutive double-digit winners. On the heels of a 79% return for 2012's Top 10 list, my 10 picks for 2013 are up 36% so far vs. an S&P return of 19%. Go here if you'd like to review the record.My mindset in terms of asset allocation is similar to the mindset of a poker player. I don't waste time trying to...Read More