I got interested in game theory in 2011 because of my interest in poker. Some of the better players were using it, and it looked like a fun study. Well, if it's possible to have a quasi-spiritual epiphany as an...Read More
Hello dear cherubs, I'm getting worked up again, this time over the prospects for an Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba competitive clash. The first shot across the bow: Alibaba's $206 million investment in ShopRunner, an American-based online retailer. On its own, ShopRunner was irrelevant. But in the arms of Alibaba, it's suddenly...Read More
The economic pie is up for grabs. The way I imagine it, it's as if business models were picked up from Planet A and deposited on Planet B. A few models fit the new planet, but most don't and some will have to be radically reconfigured. Have at it boys. Oh, and by the way, the rules have...Read More
Hello cherubs, I'm officially in manic mode, in a rush to write a few columns before my escape to the cave. I've been turning over a crazy idea in my head, and the more I think about it, the less ridiculous it seems: The most important technology company in the world today is...Read More
The public cloud changes everything about IT, and IBM (IBM) is destined to be one of the victims. I tried to make the case to Warren Buffett in a six-page letter sent in April. My effort to persuade obviously failed - he still owns the stock - but the argument still holds. Here is the letter, a narrative that...Read More
In many verticals, it's tough to separate the winners from the losers. Tesla (TSLA), for example, comes out of nowhere to shock the staid, boring auto industry. At this point, I can't tell you with confidence how the drama will play out. Tesla has first mover advantage and the lead in innovation, while Toyota (TM), Ford (F), GM (GM) and Chrysler have distribution, scale and resource advantages. It'll be fun to watch - from the sidelines. If I could figure out...Read More
It's not too late for Warren Buffett, or any other risk-adverse IBM shareholder. Get out now and don't look back. IBM's (IBM) business model no longer fits the competitive environment, as I've explained in multiple columns. This is a train wreck that everyone should see coming.
I'll explain IBM's core problem, warn investors from...Read More
The debt issue is rubbish, a media fiction. Not a shred of evidence exists to show the economy is being stressed by federal debt. None. Debt is at reasonable levels, consistent with norms that date back to the Reagan administration.
More rubbish: We are not burdening our children with excessive debt. The guilt trip put on Americans for...Read More